The Pick Six is the bet where handicappers can have their lives changed in a day’s time. On a day where the sky resembles a scene from Greek Mythology, the track conditions will no doubt play a factor in the outcome of the races. With that being said, let’s look at my pick six ticket.
Due to the conditions and extremely tough races, I am limiting my ticket to $32. My logic is that on a day like today, I would have to spend a couple grand to be comfortable and still may be worried about any of the 20 horses in the Derby. The other way I considered going was to spend a bunch on the first 5 races, and play a single in the derby hoping that the 5 correct pay out pays enough to make a profit, and just hope I get lucky on the Derby. However, in the mud we’ll have to see how the track is playing come post-time and hope it continues to play that way throughout. On a day like today, a player may not be able to bring home life changing money playing Win, Place, and Show bets but they are much higher percentage bets. Losing tickets have no value so why put a couple grand down in Powerball Tickets when your chances on a day like today are not much better from a pure handicapping standpoint.
Race 6: #2 Hot Dixie Chick: I am singling her because of her obvious standout talent. The extra ½ furlong scares me a bit because the #7 horse is cutting back in distance and has a bit of talent, and the #5 horse is the only true off pace horse that could be running in the end. But to prevent the pockets from being full of lint I figure hit the first race in the sequence, or re-focus my energy to individual races.
Race 7: #7 Diamondrella: Another single at 8-1 ML odds. I can’t single the favorite Tizaqueena when in her running lines, over a soft Keenland Turf Course, she finished 2nd to Diamondrella. I think Diamondrella just needs a soft course and a move back east. Keenland and Churchill have turf courses like no other in the country. Horses either relish it or despise it. So for me the smart pick is the horses that have shown form over either course and Diamondrella fits the bill.
Race 8: #3 Informed Decision, and #8 Rated Fiesty: Informed decision is a really consistent runner and looks to improve second off the bench. She won this race last year, and should get a good trip this year. People standing against may say she ran 3rd last time over a sloppy track. However, the winner and second place horse were both Eclipse Award winners in Music Note and Indian Blessing. She is leaps and bounds above this field from a class standpoint. #8 Rated Fiesty is an interesting long shot play. She is a Pick Six carryover type horse on paper. Average recent form, 2nd race off the bench, and note where her best race occurred, and what the track conditions were that day. Other horses of interest in this race but I left out are #2 Warbling, and #6 Pretty Prolific.
Race 9: #2 Country Day, and #7 Warriors Reward: Country Day will love the track! It is rare that the Daily Racing Form prints “relished going” when a horse wins in the slop. In fact, his 2 lifetime bests have come in these types of conditions. Similar can be said for Warriors Reward. Look at a year ago, and note that Gaudy 113 Speed Figure over an off track at Churchill. As much as I love Musket Man, I am keeping him out. Munnings may be included if he runs, but I am inclined to think he’ll scratch due to track conditions.
Race 10: #3 Court Vision: This was a tough single because I truly think #3 General Quarters has a very Turf-like leg action and should be in perfect condition running home. That being said Court Vision should improve. 2nd race back, and ultra consistent from a form and class standpoint make him a tough stand against.
Race 11: #1 Lookin at Lucky, #4 Super Saver, # 12 Conveyance, and #20 Sidney’s Candy:
Lucky has run so many troubled trips and has so much talent, I find it hard to believe he won’t be in the mix coming home. All I can ask for is that they’re in the mix when running over the slop and he’ll be there. Super Saver is the same type as Lucky. He has loads of talent with proven sloppy track form. Then there is Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy. Both will be near the front without mud flying in their faces and they could lead the parade running home. I think Candy is the best suited for 10 furlongs but Conveyance will be the only absolutely clean horse running home which makes it easier to steal a race in the slop. I tossed #3 Nobles promise at my own risk. He is ultra consistent and has the highest Tomlinson Rating for a wet track that I have ever seen (463), but unlike Conveyance, he will be dirty and a horse coming back to racing after a lung infection, dirt in the face won’t help.
| Race | Post Position |
| 6 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 |
| 8 | 8, 3 |
| 9 | 2, 7 |
| 10 | 3 |
| 11 | 1, 4, 12, 20 |
$32 Ticket
Good Luck on the Pick Six and enjoy the Racing!!!!!!
- Brad
| 
| 
| 
| 
| 
| 
